SNP to wipe the floor with Labour?

[Porn Baron]

I must say I thought SNP would be kingmaker but this looks like a political earthquake. Are Labour like the tories finished north of the border? How long before a new independance poll is called for? Most people I talk to in the south west believe politicians only look after london and the south east. Maybe that is true of voters all around the country?

[number 6]

I think when Scots realise a vote for the SNP is just helping Cameron get elected will make them thin again.

[David Johnson]

I'm not surprised at these opinion polls. There was a substantial minority that voted for Scottish independence and you would expect that to be reflected in support for the SNP in a general election. Secondly, Labour have not done enough so far to differentiate themselves from the Tories in that they support "austerity" politics.

Whether this will result in helping Cameron to victory is debatable. The SNP based on this poll would be the third party from the point of view of seats won at the general election. They have already stated that they will not do business with the Tories but are prepared to come to some arrangement with Labour. I can see a Labour/SNP coalition similar to the one, Labour had with Plaid Cymru in the Welsh government.

The SNP leaders are not daft. They realise the best way to crush the "vote SNP get Cameron argument" is to announce they are prepared to work with Labour but not the Tories.

[Porn Baron]

I always thought a Labour /SNP coalition would be the most likely outcome should Labour and the tories finish neck and neck. But Labour will need to give the SNP something. Will that be another referendum?


If the tories were to promise the SNP another referendum would that be too much of a temptation for them to resist? After all they may never get another chance?

[David Johnson]

I suspect that the more likely option in the event of a coalition between Labour and the SNP would be more powers for the Scottish government.

If Sturgeon demands another referendum in return for SNP support, the following would apply:

1. She would go against Salmond's statement about no Scottish referendum for a generation.
2. There would be no referendum on EU exit which Sturgeon would have used in the event of a Tory victory, thus triggering EU vote.
3. If the Scottish electorate did not vote for Scottish independence with the despised Cameron and co in government, I cannot see them voting Yes with a Labour government in Westminster.

[David Johnson]

For the SNP to do a deal with the Tories would be seen as a betrayal of the worst kind and be incredibly damaging to the SNP after all they have said about the Tories.

It is a non-starter.

[Porn Baron]

And what if the Tories offer them a referendum to stay in power? I know they said they would never help the tories. But would that be too much to resist?

This is going to be a really interesting election.

Yet I can't anyone under the age of 25 that I know to even bother voting. Then they complain to me that governments only look after the older generations !shrug!

[Arginald Valleywater]

Hang on DJ...who was leading the Better Together assault? Er Gordun McBroon and Alistair Darling....Labour. You may be surprised to see the Borders actually go over to the Tories.

[alicia_fan_uk]

The Scottish press have (mostly) been all over this story for a while, front and centre. Porn Baron said "Most people I talk to in the south west believe politicians only look after london and the south east". There's a similar geographic bias in the focus of national media.

To the "vote SNP, you'll only help Cameron and the Tories" disingenuity; the stats don't back that up, it locks in the long standing duopoly (which has served us so, so well.....), and it shows a disconcerting level of understanding of the UK political system in practice. The line also shows how desperate Jim Murphy is. But then maybe he hasn't looked into it too much, as he's too busy (i) trying to erase or obfuscate his voting record and actions at Westminster, and (ii) gain capital out of mickey mouse stunt policies/photo ops, such as booze on tap in football grounds (by far the most fundamental and urgent issue in Scotland today...).

The SNP has indicated that the main concessions it would look for in return for a "supply and confidence" arrangement with Labour at Westminster would include:
- non-renewal of Trident (over ?100 billion saving right there);
- loosening of austerity measures; and
- more devolution of fiscal powers.

There is no/very limited talk of Referendum 2 (at least publicly - feel free to speculate on what's going on behind closed doors).

The SNP has shown itself to be a patient and generally very astute long-term player (surely most would concede this, whether you like their views or not?). It has very sophisticated polling expertise and a strong grassroots movement. It won't demand another referendum in the short term, but you can be sure it's keeping tabs to ascertain the best time to ramp that back up.

David Johnston is bang on in ruling out others' suggestion of an SNP/Conversative deal. Suspending reality for a second and assuming for some bizarre reason it did happen, it would be one of the biggest political pyrrhic victories of all time.

[David Johnson]

"You may be surprised to see the Borders actually go over to the Tories."

The only reason Alistair Darling was leading the Better Together campaign is because the Tories have been wiped out in Scotland so had no-one to put forward capable of making any sort of attempt at doing the job.

The Ashcroft poll suggested that the SNP would win 56 of the 59 Scottish seats.

If you think that Cameron has being doing so brilliantly according to Scottish voters that the Tories will make a comeback in Scotland, then you are even more delusional than I already have you down to be.