UKIP in Clacton/Middleton elections

[David Johnson]

Well, there you have it. As I expected UKIP did incredibly well in the two by-elections last night.

UKIP won Clacton with the biggest increase in vote by any political party in any by election. They went from 0 to 60%. And this is their first MP at Westminster.

In Heywood and Middleton, UKIP were within a whisker of winning a seat from Labour which they had held very comfortably since the constituency was created.

So big problem for Labour. Enormous problem for the Tories. I can see quite a few more Tory MPs defecting to UKIP now in an attempt to hold onto their seats in the next election.

As I have said before, UKIP could well hold the balance of power after the next election. Nigel Farage for Deputy Prime Minister?

[frankthring]

Its going to be a very interesting next General Election, David, though UKIP
seem so weak on policies generally, other than blaming the EEC for all woes,
that I am very sure their success in politics will be relatively short-lived.
Farage clearly has a lot of charisma, especially since he seems like a nice
middle class bloke, as opposed to an upper-class "wet" like Cameron.

As I have said before and no doubt will bore all by saying again, Cameron is
the worst Tory leader of all time precisely because he is so un-Tory in many
of his policies and has listened to no one but himself, upsetting lots of Tory
voters in the shires. He deserves to lose the next Election. Whatever happens
now with UKIP to upsetting the Conservative apple-cart, I feel Cameron only has
himself to blame.

[David Johnson]

Yep, it looks like there will be at least 4 parties being substantial players - Con, Lib Dems, Labour, UKIP.

UKIP are a protest vote but it is an on going protest vote which I think will still have a big effect in the May general election. It is not just about immigration. Clacton where Carswell won for UKIP is 97% white British. People who vote for UKIP are generally pissed off about everything whether it be the EU, immigration, zero hours contracts, the rundown of the NHS, really poor job prospects, being poor whilst still working, the price of housing, the lack of social housing etc. etc. That is why they appeal to both Tories who don't want THEM over HERE as well as Labour supporters who are pissed off with their economic lot.

THe issue is that when the election takes place they will have to have produced a manifesto. As you stated, they are extremely light on policies and many that they do have tend to change from week to week. My guess is that their manifesto will be a La La Land utopia made of tax cuts, plenty of spending where the money comes from slashing the foreign aid budget and "efficiency savings in central and local government and public services.

I expect they will take the approach taken by Nick Clegg in 2010 i.e. we are the new politics etc etc. THat fooled hundreds of thousands of voters including many on this forum who voted Lib Dem as a result. Soon as the Lib Dems got into power they threw their manifesto out of the window.

However if you are going to get any position of power in a coalition you can only use the "new politics" crap once as the Lib Dems have found.

ANyway, interesting election for sure in May.

[Arginald Valleywater]

The Lib Dems are dead. Believe me.

[sparky]

David Johnson wrote:

> ........ People who vote
> for UKIP are generally pissed off about everything whether it
> be the EU, immigration, zero hours contracts, the rundown of
> the NHS, really poor job prospects, being poor whilst still
> working, the price of housing, the lack of social housing etc.
> etc. That is why they appeal to both Tories who don't want
> THEM over HERE as well as Labour supporters who are pissed off
> with their economic lot. ...

Exactly ....... UKIP's manifesto will be interesting and I suspect appealing but probably unachievable. Unless they can quickly create more employment and get more people earning a living wage so no longer a burden on the welfare system realistically they will be limited on funds to reallocate to voter attractive policies and projects.

[Sam Slater]

I see positives from the UKIP rise.


UKIP are so fucking scary even the Tories think they're mental. I also see UKIP cleansing the Tories of their more nutty members.

From the Labour side, Blair wouldn't have allowed UKIP to sweep away Labour votes in this way. Ed ought to concede to the rightful heir....David. David will win the next election. Ed won't.

[Essex Lad]

Nah ? three parties. Lib Dems are dead in the water. Back to being the party with six seats ? eight if you include Cyril Smith.

[David Johnson]

We will see. The Lib Dems keep coming back like a rash. Besides, you do not necessarily have to have many seats to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament.

[David Johnson]

I suspect the UKIP bandwagon will collapse as soon as they get into a position of power and come face to face with the realities of government.

The huge advantage that UKIP has in electoral terms is their line on EU immigration. Their argument goes as follows:
1. The EEC started off as a trade organisation.
2. It moved much more towards having greater political and economic union as key objectives. As part of this, free movement of labour is a key tenet.
3. This wasn't so bad in the 70's and 80s when member states had similar levels of economic prosperity.
4. The rapid expansion of the EU has brought in Eastern European countries which hare far, far poorer than the west. This has resulted in huge movements of workers from the poorer to the richer countries.
5. The only way to control this is to get out of the EU and introduce border controls.

And I have to say, UKIP are correct in their analysis. Many voters in areas of significant EU immigration, blame that immigration rightly or wrongly for their woes e.g. poor job prospects, wage rates dropping, local housing price rises, shortage of council housing etc. etc.

Even if you increased the minimum wage substantially as Labour is promising to do, all that will do is to encourage more EU immigrants to move here, particularly in a situation where the EU seems to be heading towards recession again.

UKIP is the only political party offering a solution to this problem which is why there has been a huge upsurge in their support.

[number 6]

The election will be won in the marginal seats and Labour lead in most of these in the polls.