Pain without gain
Posted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 7:33 pm
Now you may have heard from the Tories endlessly that they have cut the deficit (government expenditure take away income) by 25%. Osborne and the rest of his lot have repeated the figure endlessly.
Great eh? Thank God we have a government sorting out Labour's mess. So the raison d'etre for this government is actually being met. Fantastico. At least all those 100s of thousands of public sector workers who have lost their jobs can see that it has been for some purpose.
Err not quite. The reason the figures look so good on the deficit are :
Firstly, the Government assessment depends on using ?net borrowing? data rather than ?current budget? data. But the current budget data is a measure of the difference between government expenditure and income, and therefore arguably a better measure of the state of the public finances, while the net borrowing data includes cuts to investment spending - money not yet spent so it is neither income nor expenditure.
Secondly the government has ignored the most recent data for the current financial year which is really bad as you would expect given that we have had no growth and are in a double dip recession.
The independent Office of National Statistics (ONS) shows that in the latest rolling 12-month period, covering the months September 2011 to August 2012, the deficit by this measure has crept back up to nearly ?108 billion. This is only ?2.7 billion lower than borrowing (again using ?current budget? data) for the financial year 2009/10 (the date that the Government has used for the starting point of its analysis). By this assessment (to repeat, using the most recent data, and looking at the current budget rather than net borrowing data), the deficit has only fallen by 2% since the financial year 2009/10.
This is the actual quote from the ONS. "Taking the current budget balance, the latest figures suggest that the deficit is rising again. Having peaked at more than ?110 billion in 2009-10, the current budget deficit fell to ?95 billion in the 2011-12 financial year. However in the latest rolling 12-
month period, covering the period September 2011 to August 2012, the deficit has crept back up to nearly ?108 billion".
Yeah I know load of boring stats.
But after 2 and half years of pain, hundreds of thousands of people sacked, billions taken from the welfare budget, squeezed middle class, frozen salaries at a time of rocketing fuel and heating costs, grannie tax, pasty tax (forgot that was a U turn) etc etc, the result of all of this pain is a reduction in the deficit of ?2.7 billion or 2% of the deficit.
Great eh? At this rate, the 21st century is going to see a lot of austerity!
Great eh? Thank God we have a government sorting out Labour's mess. So the raison d'etre for this government is actually being met. Fantastico. At least all those 100s of thousands of public sector workers who have lost their jobs can see that it has been for some purpose.
Err not quite. The reason the figures look so good on the deficit are :
Firstly, the Government assessment depends on using ?net borrowing? data rather than ?current budget? data. But the current budget data is a measure of the difference between government expenditure and income, and therefore arguably a better measure of the state of the public finances, while the net borrowing data includes cuts to investment spending - money not yet spent so it is neither income nor expenditure.
Secondly the government has ignored the most recent data for the current financial year which is really bad as you would expect given that we have had no growth and are in a double dip recession.
The independent Office of National Statistics (ONS) shows that in the latest rolling 12-month period, covering the months September 2011 to August 2012, the deficit by this measure has crept back up to nearly ?108 billion. This is only ?2.7 billion lower than borrowing (again using ?current budget? data) for the financial year 2009/10 (the date that the Government has used for the starting point of its analysis). By this assessment (to repeat, using the most recent data, and looking at the current budget rather than net borrowing data), the deficit has only fallen by 2% since the financial year 2009/10.
This is the actual quote from the ONS. "Taking the current budget balance, the latest figures suggest that the deficit is rising again. Having peaked at more than ?110 billion in 2009-10, the current budget deficit fell to ?95 billion in the 2011-12 financial year. However in the latest rolling 12-
month period, covering the period September 2011 to August 2012, the deficit has crept back up to nearly ?108 billion".
Yeah I know load of boring stats.
But after 2 and half years of pain, hundreds of thousands of people sacked, billions taken from the welfare budget, squeezed middle class, frozen salaries at a time of rocketing fuel and heating costs, grannie tax, pasty tax (forgot that was a U turn) etc etc, the result of all of this pain is a reduction in the deficit of ?2.7 billion or 2% of the deficit.
Great eh? At this rate, the 21st century is going to see a lot of austerity!