Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Bahrain,Libya

[jimslip]

The battles rage in these countries, between those that seek democracy and their respective governments who are helped by the army and 1000's of those bastards in brown trousers and mustaches (AKA "government supporters")

Predictions anyone for the state of those countries in 6 months time?

[David Johnson]

Really difficult to say.

I guess the main problem is none of these countries have or have had, what we would call a democracy. So it is not as if anyone can propose a return to a democratic system. And one group's democratic system might be completely different to another's.

The levels of literacy in these countries seem relatively high and in particular, countries like Egypt, have a big middle class that wants political and economic freedom, together with an end to ruling class corruption.

What is slightly encouraging is that there doesn't seem to be much demand out there for an Islamic republic. Most of the people protesting appear to be secular in their approach. That isn't to say that Islamic groups might not take advantage of the chaos and carry out a coup.

There are some countries like Libya that seem to be going down the Iran approach to quelling dissent i.e. crack down hard. Others like Bahrain seem to be now talking about discussions.

In the oil rich countries, I am surprised that Libya and Bahrain, for example, haven't been showering money on the populace as a way of dealing with their opponents. Instead both Bahrain and Libya have been opening fire on their own people. In the case of Libya, according to the Beeb this morning, Gaddafi has brought in foreign mercenaries to open fire on the demonstrators with heavy weaponry and missiles! This smacks of real desperation.

So, in short, I ain't got a clue. One thing is for sure, if it slips into chaos in the region, we are all going to be in for a very bumpy ride.

Cheers
D

[Lizard]

One thing for sure, you can see Gaddaffi in his true colors, shooting your own people is not a great career move.
He has crossed a line in the sand, there is no way back for him.he will have to go, or continue to murder his people.
He is finished.
These are very interesting times.I don't believe hard won freedoms will be replaced by fundementalis, that would be like jumping out of the frying pan etc.

[spider]

I read in the papers yesterday that British Policemen (paid for by the UK Government) have been in Libya training their Thugs (sorry, Police).

It's seems like only yesterday that Libyans? were murdering Met Policewomen in London.

[Bob Singleton]

"History teaches that history teaches us nothing" - Hegel

In the mid nineteenth century there were many revolutions in Europe. Facing economic hardship and starvation the downtrodden of Ireland, France, Germany, Italy and elsewhere, with the help of middle class radicals, rose up against the tyranny that was all around them. One of the things that helped gather momentum for these uprisings was the greater use of the printing press and the ability to disseminate information in the printed word quickly and easily far and wide. 1848 saw the publication of Marx's Communist Manifesto... a call to arms against the ruling classes, and that year saw uprisings and revolutions throughout Europe.

None were successful because the ruling classes brutally put down the uprisings by using troops to shoot the general populace in the streets and at the barricades.

In 1905 the Russian peasants, again aided by middle class intellectuals and radicals, revolted against the Czar, but with the use of brute force and much bloodshed the uprising was quelled. Twelve years later when the October Revolution began the Czarist government did not use force (after all much of the army had been decimated fighting the Germans and the Austro-Hungarians in the trenches) and the revolutionaries prevailed.



We can, in a way, see history repeating itself in North Africa and the Middle East. An educated and radical middle class, using Twitter and Facebook, has joined forces with the downtrodden to attempt to overthrow a repressive regime. Where the army has stood aside, as in Egypt, the leadership has been toppled (though we still await what the army there will ultimately do... it has, after all, been in power since Muhhamed Naguib and Abdel Nasser in the early 50s and may not yet be ready to fully relinquish its powers).

Who knows what the final outcome will be in these states, but as DJ pointed out, from a Western perspective, it's good to see that, unlike in Iran in 1979 there doesn't (as yet) seem to be a lurch towards Islamic fundamentalism.

[frankthring]

Jim - you list 5 countries and of these 2 were, beneath all the secret
police apparatus, decidedly pro-Western (Egypt and Tunisia), one an
absolute kingdom (Bahrain), one ruled by a long-in-power dictator of
eccentric habits (Libya) and we all know how absolute power corrupts,
and one already a base of terrorist activity.
You decline or overlook Iran where the Green Party looks ready to try
and topple another fundamentalist dictatorship.
How will it all pan out in 6 months ? Good question. Nightmare to answer.
My guess is that it will fragment; Egypt now looks as if the Army will stay
in control or decide the balance of power (and for this I am grateful if
they continue to put electrodes on the balls of the fundamentalists),
Tunisia will gradually go anti-Western, Libya`s dictator will not go without
a bloodbath and heaven knows what might come after him (I think it
might be worse, much worse), Bahrain might be OK and Yemen is a part
of Hell already.
Personally I remain very worried about all these populist revolts. The
people have never experienced true democracry and are poorly educated
and thus easily led.....ripe meat for fundamentalist anti-Western
mullahs....

[David Johnson]

"Libya`s dictator will not go without
a bloodbath and heaven knows what might come after him (I think it
might be worse, much worse), "

Agreed. It's really difficult to know what is going on, but if the Beeb is right in saying that foreign nationals have been used in Benghazi to shoot the demonstrators then that would suggest that the army and the police in that area have refused to do the dirty work for Gaddafi.

You would have thought in that situation that Gaddafi had had it, but apparently there have been no demonstrations in the capital, Tripoli which obviously makes it very difficult to second guess.



Cheers
D

[jimslip]

Herr Thring, I hadn't forgotten Iran. Iran has a very young population and I really feel sorry for them simply wanting to express themselves and then being brutally crushed. Unlike the other countries, I can't see how they can possibly beat back, the Mullahs and their contingents of their BTM's "Brown Trouser & Moustaches" Paramilitary groups.

If the protesters could turn the armed forces around, the Mullahs would be dead men and good riddance to them!

[David Johnson]

Looks like Gaddafi's days could be numbered. The demonstrations have now spread to the capital, Tripoli and the state TV station has been destroyed.

This could all get very, very bloody.

D

[RoddersUK]

Few would miss Gadafyduck. Another dictator who will get his just deserts.
Don't forget the aid he gave to the IRA.