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I know your record on predictions is excellent, you were predicting a hung parliament weeks before the 2017 General Election.

But, I disagree with you on this one.

I think Mrs May in safe now, until the 29th March next year at least (the date currently planned for the UK?s exit of the EU).

I say this for three reasons.

The first is that all the contenders for the job have blown their chances. Boris cocked-up by leaving too long after the Chequers summit to resign and letting David Davis get his resignation in first. That made Boris look devious by waiting to see how the wind was blowing before he made his move. I also think people (if you can call Tories people) are beginning to see through Boris now and what a devious little turd he is. Gove has thrown his hand in with Mrs May's plan and has accepted that he will have to wait until Brexit is over before chancing his arm again. Dr Fox is interesting, in that he was a big noise in the Brexit camp but he is just keeping his head down now. I think he knows that if he resigns / gets thrown out of the Cabinet a second time that will be the end of his career. To be thrown out of cabinet once is unfortunate, there?s no coming back from being thrown out twice.

The second reason is I don?t think anyone else with half a brain wants the job. Why would you want to inherit the PM?s job right now? Brexit has spit the country in half (alright 52%/48%), it?s going to be a complete abortion (whichever side of the fence you sit on). Why would you want the job right now when you could wait another six or nine months and go for the job with the campaigning slogan ?Brexit: it was nothing to do with me mate?. I suppose Jacob Rees Morgue or Andrew Bridgen might be interested, but I did start this statement with ?anyone else with half a brain?.

The third reason is there?s only one thing that the Tories really care about and that is being in power and I think they realise that if they get rid of Theresa now, there?s a good chance things will really go tits-up for them and if they stumble into another General Election they could be out of power for years. Hence they are willing to bite their tongues now until Brexit is over. Next Summer they can then manage a transition to a new dynamic leader (Sajid Javid perhaps) and then try to hold out as long as possible and go into the next Election with a fresh pair of hands.

Of course if 'Engerland' win the WC Theresa will be on a roll. I wouldn?t put it past her to try and roll that wave and perhaps think about calling another election with the same old ?I need to get the Nation's endorsement to my Brexit plan as I go into negotiations with the EU? (you know the same old crap she came out with just before the last General Election). Hopefully though there would be an outcry that she is just trying to ride the wave of populism and she would be seen for what she actually is.

Old Nina S Best has gone very quiet. I?d love to know what his view of the current situation is and how good a job Theresa is doing?

I'm not sure the tories have anyone with half a brain. Boris isn't getting the job that looks certain unless they think give him it, we'll get slaughtered at the next election and he'll have to resign as well. I'm still tempted to say that Trump's visit has kept her in the job while next monday/tuesday but as you say they only care about power. Eventually we are going to get a proper split in the Tories right wing/middle ground and it'll probably be mirrored in Labour by a right/left split. One will leave UKIP even more redundant than they are now and the other will swallow up the lib dems. I hope they don't get rid of her, she loses a confidence vote and has to fight an election which will wipe them out. We did keep telling nina brexit wouldn't happen so he can't say he wasn't warned.

Two quick comments

I agree that the thoughts of anybody thinking half straight would be ' she's got us into this hole and I'm not going to take the flak over trying to get us out because it is going to be messy '

If after the last election when she expected an increased majority but ended up finding she had misread the electorate and had to get the DUP into bed to cling on surely even she isn't big headed / naive / daft enough to think of another election. If she does either there will be a hung parliament or Labour will scrabble together just enough to have a majority.

I think you have to look at it as at the last election she got all the votes she is ever going to get. By that I mean all the UKIP voters went to her. As you say she (definitely now) won't go for a second election but if she did all those on the 'any deal is better than no deal/soft side' of brexit would go to labour. It would be pointless going to the libdems. The scottish conservatives would return to getting their arses kicked. So we get corbyn with a majority of 30 i'd say. The problem then would be a newly clean sweeping SNP would be in search of a new referendum or a way out of brexit altogether and if you're negotiating along the lines of a no border for northern ireland then why shouldn't they as a devolved government have a separate deal as well?

So according to Theresa they can either have no brexit or brexit in name only. Sort of the exact opposite of having your cake and eating it. Goodbye Tories forever.

Looks to me as if we are going to have half a Brexit (or 52% of a Brexit to be exact), which is a perfect result if you think about it.

!happy!

But, but, but, we got our blue passports back (made in France).

The fact that we could have had a blue covered passport anytime we wanted is just symbolic of all the lies that the leavers were fed and swallowed whole.

Anyway, has anyone seen Boris?

I think Trump has given him a new job. He's now responsible for licking Donald's arse clean whenever he takes a dump on Air Farce One. Farage will be miffed, he wanted that job!

Someone on TV the other day said Theresa had wanted to become an -ism along the lines of Thatcherism and they said there was no chance of that now but she already has. Mayism = to fuck it up completely. She's fucked up Brexit, she fucked up a general election against the most left-wing policies anyone has seen on a labour manifesto since 1983, she's fucked up age verification, she's fucked up heathrow, she's fucked up the railways and she's fucked up the tories who will never, ever govern again.

I don't know whether it's just pure luck that Labour have never had a 100% clear policy on their Brexit plans or whether someone somewhere was clever enough to say "look we don't need one she/they are going to fuck this up so badly that even bothering to turn up after the mess has been made will make us look like we know what we're doing" but if they did a round of applause for a political genius.

They've never voted any Brexit legislation down so they look like they respect the will of the people, the only politicians really fucking it up sideways are the ones who actually wanted it. Clever.

This is Brexit..........




I think Nina S Best must be hiding in the same cupboard as Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.

!laugh!!laugh!!laugh!!laugh!!laugh!!laugh!!laugh!!laugh!!laugh!!laugh!

Going back to the main subject of this thread.

The crime figures released today make interesting reading.

Knife crime up 16%.

Robbery including muggings up 33% (yes that's right 33%).

Vehicle related crime up 12%.

Police numbers down by 22,000 since 2010.

Is there anyone who thinks the rise in crime and the reduction in police numbers are NOT related?.

A couple more questions.

1. Who was Home Secretary 2010 to 2016?

2. Who has been Prime Minister since 2016.

3. Which party advertisers themselves as the party of Law and Order?

Theresa is taking charge of brexit negotiations.

What could possibly go wrong we know how likeable, trustworthy and co-operative she is. The deal is as good as done.

oh look a cliff edge, careful.