Sam Slater
Posted: Sat Oct 11, 2014 1:26 pm
"UKIP are so fucking scary even the Tories think they're mental"
The Tories don't think they are mental. You may have a handful of Tory MPs who have made disparaging remarks in the past e.g. "nutters", but not now. As a result of a large number of disaffected Tory MPs, Cameron has been forced to introduce a promise of an EU referendum in 2017 and follow the UKIP bandwagon.
"From the Labour side, Blair wouldn't have allowed UKIP to sweep away Labour votes in this way"
This is pure guesswork which I believe to be misguided.
There has been a global recession which badly affected Britain. Blair would not have been able to prevent that recession because of his lack of oversight of the banking sector. UKIP's attraction for many people is a yearning for the times before recession, mass migration, when jobs were more plentiful and well paid etc etc. In his time in office, Blair showed absolutely no sign of meeting those typical UKIP voter concerns. And he was committed pro-EU and committed to free movement of labour.
"David will win the next election. Ed won't."
Again this is pure guesswork which I believe to be misguided.
If Labour get a similar percentage of the vote to the Tories they win the election according to every pollster I have read about. In the previous 4 years or so, only a small handful of polls have given the Tories a bigger percentage of the vote than Labour. All the others have given Labour a majority.
Lord Ashworth has carried out a number of very detailed polls which suggest that Tory voters are far more likely to vote UKIP than Labour voters. You saw that in action in the two by elections this week where in Middleton, although the Labour percentage of the vote increased, the Tory vote collapsed completely and in Clacton, there was the biggest increase in vote for a party (UKIP) ever seen at the expense of the Tory vote.
So in short, the rise of UKIP will further hamper the task of the Tories in trying to win Labour seats. In the North as Farage, correctly says vote Tory and you get Ed Miliband!!
The Tories don't think they are mental. You may have a handful of Tory MPs who have made disparaging remarks in the past e.g. "nutters", but not now. As a result of a large number of disaffected Tory MPs, Cameron has been forced to introduce a promise of an EU referendum in 2017 and follow the UKIP bandwagon.
"From the Labour side, Blair wouldn't have allowed UKIP to sweep away Labour votes in this way"
This is pure guesswork which I believe to be misguided.
There has been a global recession which badly affected Britain. Blair would not have been able to prevent that recession because of his lack of oversight of the banking sector. UKIP's attraction for many people is a yearning for the times before recession, mass migration, when jobs were more plentiful and well paid etc etc. In his time in office, Blair showed absolutely no sign of meeting those typical UKIP voter concerns. And he was committed pro-EU and committed to free movement of labour.
"David will win the next election. Ed won't."
Again this is pure guesswork which I believe to be misguided.
If Labour get a similar percentage of the vote to the Tories they win the election according to every pollster I have read about. In the previous 4 years or so, only a small handful of polls have given the Tories a bigger percentage of the vote than Labour. All the others have given Labour a majority.
Lord Ashworth has carried out a number of very detailed polls which suggest that Tory voters are far more likely to vote UKIP than Labour voters. You saw that in action in the two by elections this week where in Middleton, although the Labour percentage of the vote increased, the Tory vote collapsed completely and in Clacton, there was the biggest increase in vote for a party (UKIP) ever seen at the expense of the Tory vote.
So in short, the rise of UKIP will further hamper the task of the Tories in trying to win Labour seats. In the North as Farage, correctly says vote Tory and you get Ed Miliband!!