UKIP in Clacton/Middleton elections

[David Johnson]

"UKIP are so fucking scary even the Tories think they're mental"

The Tories don't think they are mental. You may have a handful of Tory MPs who have made disparaging remarks in the past e.g. "nutters", but not now. As a result of a large number of disaffected Tory MPs, Cameron has been forced to introduce a promise of an EU referendum in 2017 and follow the UKIP bandwagon.

"From the Labour side, Blair wouldn't have allowed UKIP to sweep away Labour votes in this way"

This is pure guesswork which I believe to be misguided.

There has been a global recession which badly affected Britain. Blair would not have been able to prevent that recession because of his lack of oversight of the banking sector. UKIP's attraction for many people is a yearning for the times before recession, mass migration, when jobs were more plentiful and well paid etc etc. In his time in office, Blair showed absolutely no sign of meeting those typical UKIP voter concerns. And he was committed pro-EU and committed to free movement of labour.


"David will win the next election. Ed won't."

Again this is pure guesswork which I believe to be misguided.

If Labour get a similar percentage of the vote to the Tories they win the election according to every pollster I have read about. In the previous 4 years or so, only a small handful of polls have given the Tories a bigger percentage of the vote than Labour. All the others have given Labour a majority.

Lord Ashworth has carried out a number of very detailed polls which suggest that Tory voters are far more likely to vote UKIP than Labour voters. You saw that in action in the two by elections this week where in Middleton, although the Labour percentage of the vote increased, the Tory vote collapsed completely and in Clacton, there was the biggest increase in vote for a party (UKIP) ever seen at the expense of the Tory vote.

So in short, the rise of UKIP will further hamper the task of the Tories in trying to win Labour seats. In the North as Farage, correctly says vote Tory and you get Ed Miliband!!

[Sam Slater]

Ignore my prediction for the next election. I was pissed when I wrote it last night. I meant the election after. Bit late for this election now.

If I had to guess for this next election, I think it's going to be hung again. Maybe another coalition. Whether that's a Tory/Lib Dem or Labour/Lib Dem, I do not know.

[David Johnson]

"I was pissed when I wrote it last night. I meant the election after"

Well the same comments apply. Surely if you think that "Ed ought to concede to the rightful heir....David. David will win the next election (meaning the next but one election" that assumes that Ed Miliband does not win the May 2015 election. Otherwise, why should he step down?

The point that Number 6 and I are making is that the polling evidence does not currently support that view, particularly with the rise of UKIP who's support is more likely to come from the Tories than Labour.

[Essex Lad]

David Johnson wrote:


> The point that Number 6 and I are making is that the polling
> evidence does not currently support that view, particularly
> with the rise of UKIP who's support is more likely to come from
> the Tories than Labour.

After Heywood I'm not so sure that is true. A lot of what Farage says resonates with the working class.

The Tories cannot win in the north but Ukip just might. A poll today gave them 25% of the votes which if maintained at a General Election would land them 128 seats...

[David Johnson]

UKIP have a very limited track record in areas where there has been significant immigration e.g. London. The Tories have tended to do badly in votes from Asians and Africans.

I am not denying that Labour could lose a lot of votes to UKIP in white working class areas where people will be conned by UKIP "new politics" guff but overall I still think UKIP are more likely to hit the Tories substantially than Labour.

[number 6]

More chance of 128 pigs flying over my head than UKIP gettiing 128 seats at the next election. UKIP may scrape four or five seats at best, but none of them will be up north. This will be a wake up call for Labour voters who despise right wing politics , they will get out and vote next May.

[Essex Lad]

number 6 wrote:

> More chance of 128 pigs flying over my head than UKIP gettiing
> 128 seats at the next election. UKIP may scrape four or five
> seats at best, but none of them will be up north. This will be
> a wake up call for Labour voters who despise right wing
> politics , they will get out and vote next May.

Really? A wake-up call to get out and vote? In your dreams...