Could be interesting for the General Election...

[alicia_fan_uk]

Yes, it's just a poll and the analysis recognises inherent weaknesses of some of the projections. But this could be some kind of counter to any Conservative/UKIP split of seats in May 2015.... Neither is the trusty old "pre-election give away" response now an option for Labour.

By way of context, the Lib Dems (currently....) have 57 seats.

[Arginald Valleywater]

Hoots mon jings n crivens Gromit etc. The Scots have realised early on that Millibland is not PM calibre and neither is Nu Labor..Roll on a UKIP-Tory victory.

[number 6]

Yep roll on a tory / ukip coalition. Just don't be poor, sick or disabled , because life will be hell for you. It's hell now,but give Cameron a free run with his far right wing friends and the most vulnerable in society will be fucked.

[Arginald Valleywater]

Life is not hell in the UK. Our economy is doing fine, companies are hiring all over the land, crime is down, we are out of Afghanistan and Iraq......once we crush the Islamic lunatics shagging our kids and get out of the EU it will be a whole lot better. From personal work experiences most poverty is caused by laziness, stupidity and too much spoon feeding money be McBroon and his bum chums.

[number 6]

Life may be fine if you are fit,healthy and full of life. If you are mentally ill ,disabled,genuinely sick , it won't be. I think you know that. Yes , there are people playing the system , but they are in the minority. But thee media have tried and succeeded in painting most people on benefits as scroungers , very sad state of affairs.

[David Johnson]

You forgot to mention your generous pay rise, Argie. And what about the fall in the price of fuel? Filling the tank of your Ferrari, can't be cheap.

[alicia_fan_uk]

Does anyone expect UKIP to secure anything near 54 seats come May 2015?

I've never known an 90%+ seat win rate (albeit crudely projected) in any free elections ever. The speed of this shift is equally amazing.

Either of the Conservatives, Labour or Lib Dems etc would need to win 595(!) seats to match that sort of win rate.

[David Johnson]

This is going to be one of the most unpredictable elections to second guess.

I can remember the election "swingometer" as a kid and it was all about the swing from Conservatives to Labour or vice versa. Now we are into a shifting sands of politics in which there are going to be at least 4 or 5 parties potentially having a part to play - Tories, Labour, Lib Dem, UKIP, SNP.

The SNP are going to do well because they are still riding on a wave of "Somewhere over the Rainbow" feeling where everything will be better in an independent Scotland (never mind the price of oil going south at a rate of knots taking huge chunks out of revenue). This will continue despite losing the referendum. It is a bit like getting knocked back by a beautiful girl. The lusting is only enhanced by the knock back.

As for UKIP, they will also do well, because immigration is uppermost in many people's minds and the Tories and Labour can huff and puff but neither can control the flow of immigration whilst staying in the EU. However, I see UKIP as more a threat to the Tories than the Labour party. Farage cannot put off having a manifesto for ever. The 2010 UKIP manifesto Farage viewed as drivel and said he never read it so I don't see UKIP doing incredibly well because as soon as the manifesto emerges it will show the fault lines in their views.

As for the Tories, Cameron strikes me as buffoonery personified in his dealings with the EU. And his government's decision to refuse to fund rescues of immigrants in the Mediterranean, on the grounds of a few dead bodies would put people off from trying the journey, made me ashamed of being British, a country I love and has given me so much.

And as for Labour, well Ed has done a really poor job so far in leading the party to being an impressive opposition.

My guess/hope is a Labour led coalition victory, but I say that without much enthusiasm. THe alternatives are too depressing to consider.

[number 6]

I'd hazard a guess UKIP get about 6 seats, all down south.

[Essex Lad]

David Johnson wrote:


>
> As for UKIP, they will also do well, because immigration is
> uppermost in many people's minds and the Tories and Labour can
> huff and puff but neither can control the flow of immigration
> whilst staying in the EU. However, I see UKIP as more a threat
> to the Tories than the Labour party. Farage cannot put off
> having a manifesto for ever. The 2010 UKIP manifesto Farage
> viewed as drivel and said he never read it so I don't see UKIP
> doing incredibly well because as soon as the manifesto emerges
> it will show the fault lines in their views.

The manifesto things is a red herring. What does it matter what the 2010 manifesto said/didn't say? It's 2014 and the election is in 2015. The 1983 Labour manifesto was, may I remind you, the longest suicide note in history...


>
> As for the Tories, Cameron strikes me as buffoonery personified
> in his dealings with the EU.

Really? You don't think that it's because he is totally pro-EU and doesn't want to leave?

>
> And as for Labour, well Ed has done a really poor job so far in
> leading the party to being an impressive opposition.

Yes even Maureen Lipman has deserted...
>
> My guess/hope is a Labour led coalition victory, but I say that
> without much enthusiasm. THe alternatives are too depressing
> to consider.

I presume you mean a Lab-Lib coalition? Would you really want to get into bed with the Liberals who have done so much harm in their dealings with the Tories?