Beware of Greeks bearing grudges.

[David Johnson]

Hi
This is getting a tad confusing.

First Papandreou works through the night with the other EU leaders to sort out a bailout plan and agree it.

Second, Papandreou, having given two years of austerity to the Greek people without asking them at any point whether they were in favour, decides five days after the agreement, without discussing it with other cabinet ministers e.g Finance Minister that there will be a referendum.

He loses his majority in the party on the understandable basis that a number of them are thinking what the hell is going on here.

The BBC reports along with other media that Papandreou is offering his resignation today.

Papandreou denies this and spends 40 minutes so far addressing Parliament without really letting on what is going to happen.

However the story is reported that Papandreou is now saying there will be no referendum.

Jeez!

D

[David Johnson]

My understanding is that if Greece continues with the ferocious austerity package which is far worse than we are experiencing here in the UK, they will still be running a deficit of 120% of GDP in 2020.

The deficit they were running in 2009? 120% of GDP.

So I can see that this approach is not hugely appealing to the Greek people. On the other hand if they leave the euro I don't see it being any easier particularly. Yes they will be able to devalue and strengthen their capability to export once they are back on the drachma. But who is going to lend money to them?

Secondly, there will be hundreds of thousands of people in Greece who have taken mortgages out in euros either for commercial or domestic purposes or alternatively for loans.

Soon as they move to the drachma, the value of their wages, savings etc are very much devalued against the euro and they will end up with their mortgage/loan debts increasing hugely.

This is the situation that occurred for Icelandic people who decide to take out mortgages in euros or buy cars in euros etc. The Icelandic currency dived and they were left struggling to keep a roof over their heads.

Cheers
D

[Gusset Sniffer]

I see what you mean about mortgages and loans but Greece is fucked if it stays in the euro. Going back to the drachma would stop imports, bolster exports and they would be able to control monetary policy. And I'll get a lovely cheap holiday again around those gorgeous islands !wink!

I thought this stalling was so they could get 75% off ????

[David Johnson]

"And I'll get a lovely cheap holiday again around those gorgeous islands "

Dream on Graecophile! All that will happen is that the Greek owners of bars, cafes, restaurants and hotels will charge you a fortune in drachmas so that they can still pay off their euro mortgages/loans.

You'll probably need an extra suitcase just to carry the drachmas !wink!

Cheers
D

[Lizard]

The descision was taken to bail out the greeks.
Most Greeks didn't want a bail out.
Greek PM calls referendum, but without naming what it will say
Greek MP's resign, and more threaten to.
Greek PM 'might' call referendum off, maybe.....
World leaders breath sigh of relief
Greek PM to face vote of confidence
Greek PM might not win above
Greek Govenment don't get anymore bail out, unless they scrap referendum.
Papandreou might resign
Papandreou might survive.
Stock markets rise on the news that referendum might be called off.
Stock markets 'jittery' in case it's back on.
Referendum called off at the moment, but could be back on tomorrow.
Papandreou has some taramasalta for lunch that all the G20 leaders have pissed in.
Jusine Bieber may have to take paternity test.....markets crash.

[Gusset Sniffer]

But the problems are still there???? This is a small distraction. Half of Europe is bankrupt. They will have to devalue the euro anyway or right off the debts and let the banks go bust????? I can't understand how it is not the case?


Can't we write off the debts of all countries including the third world and start again?

[David Johnson]

"Half of Europe is bankrupt"

I wouldnt put it quite as strongly as that.

"They will have to devalue the euro anyway or right off the debts and let the banks go bust????? "

Will they? Given this euro crisis has been dragging on for yonks it is interesting to note that the euro still buys you a lot more of a pound than it did 4 years ago.

And finally, this might give you a laugh. The World Bank's Ease of Doing Business index which takes the areas below as its methodology, places Greece at 109th behind such paragons of business dynamism and virtue as Bangladesh, Yemen and Mongolia. A fitting partner for Euroland. I can see Greek growth really taking off!!!!!

Cheers
D

Starting a Business - Procedures, time, cost and minimum capital to open a new business
Dealing with construction permits - Procedures, time and cost to build a warehouse
Employing workers - Difficulty of hiring index, rigidity of hours of index, difficulty of redundancy index, rigidity of employment index, redundancy costs
Registering property - Procedures, time and cost to register commercial real estate
Getting credit - Strength of legal rights index, depth of credit information index
Protecting investors - Indices on the extent of disclosure, extent of director liability and ease of shareholder suits
Paying taxes - Number of taxes paid, hours per year spent preparing tax returns and total tax payable as share of gross profit
Trading across borders - Number of documents, cost and time necessary to export and import
Enforcing contracts - Procedures, time and cost to enforce a debt contract
Closing a business - Index of recovery rate which is a function of time, cost and other factors such as lending rate and the likelihood of the company continuing to operate

[David Johnson]

Stunning summary, Lizard.

Apparently there are plans to replace East Enders with the ongoing story of Greece and Euroland, with the bloke who was Dot COtton's husband playing the part of Papandreou.

CHeers
D

[Gusset Sniffer]

I see the worlds leaders have done bugger all after a two day piss up !flush!

Silvio Berlusconi said that Italy was offered money by the IMF but turned it down.

He said "Italy is a rich country. The restaurants are full" !laugh! Fancy a Bunga bunga?

[David Johnson]

If Italy was a rich country, I doubt if there would be a need for its debt to GDP ratio to be 120%, the second highest after Greece in Europe.

In comparison, according to the IMF and EU, the debt to GDP ratio in the UK in 2010 was 75%.

But we all knew that when Cameron and Osborne said in May 2010 that we were just like Greece, they were lying. Didn't we? No? That's why Dozy Dave and Boy George are now having to tell us not to be pessimistic because they have spent the last 18 months terrifying the British public into not spending anything. So suprise, surprise, the economy is tanking.

Duh, duh!

One of the many sad things about the euro crisis which is so painful for the ordinary Greek population is that it is giving cover for Dozy Dave and Boy George to say "Oh the reason we have had to cut our growth estimates more times than you have had hot dinners, is because of that nasty euro crisis".

If only.

Cheers
D