Libya

[Sam Slater]

Riced bread. Damn predictive text.

[andy at handiwork]

You mustn't take me too seriously DJ though I'm still smarting from you shooting down my finely honed quip the other week about it being hard to make predictions especially about the future. And there was me thinking we were generally (but dont tell Jim) on a similar wavelength now and again occasionally sometimes.

[David Johnson]

Ah right. Now I can see why you were so keen on Cleggie.

!wink!

Cheers
D

[David Johnson]

Sorry! I agree with your perception. But don't tell Jimbo.

Cheers
D

[David Johnson]

So here we go, ridiculously wrong or otherwise.

By the way, where I mention UK below, take that to also include US, France etc etc.

I predict......

Within a year there will be a high level UK ministerial visit to Libya accompanied by a band of arms salesmen. Given that Nato has been bombing to bits for six months, the Libyan airforce, heavy artillery e.g. tanks and military infrastructure, whoever gets in control will be keen to spend as soon as the petrodollars start flowing again, which leads to my second prediction......

Within a year there will be a high level UK ministerial visit to Libya accompanied by a band of petroleum chairmen. Cue picture of chairman signing lucrative new deal with picture of smiling Cameron standing in the background, just like the one of Blair last time round. Now in order to make sure that oil flows freely there is a need to rebuild the infrastructure, which leads to my third prediction....

Within a year there will be a high level UK ministerial visit to Libya accompanied by a bunch of construction company chairmen. Oil infrastructure, particularly in the rebel held areas will have had a right pasting from Gaddafi in the early days of the conflict. Towns like the port of Misrata and Benghazi would have had large infrastructure damage. The communications infrastructure will be in bits. And we all know that precision weapons are not always precise weapons. Cue contract opportunities. And obviously all this work will need to be done in a safe, secure environment, which leads to my fourth prediction.......

Within a year there will be a high level UK ministerial visit to Libya accompanied by a bunch of security company chairmen. Whoever is in charge will not want to end up like the General Younis, who was the rebels' military leader and apparently got bumped off by a section of the rebels themselves. Therefore, there will be lots of requirements for security consultants, security operatives etc etc.

Now as for who will be in control. Ah well...... I'm less sure about this prediction. However, Libya has one of the highest gun ownership levels of any country and has had 40 years+ of Gaddafi dictatorship so the chances of John Bercow nipping over there to show them how to run a Libyan House of Commons seems to be a tad unlikely to me, given that the rebels are a real mix of jihadists, freeloaders, Gaddafi haters, tribal leaders, lovers of democracy, good people risking their necks for their country etc etc. So I suspect that the Libyan National Council which has been based in Benghazi will try to control the country but will fail due to the fall of Gaddafi being like taking the cork out of a bottle of champagne. 40 years of repression comes rushing out. The country will descend into a number of areas where the control on the ground will vary from area to area. I think it will be very, very messy with a whole bunch of chancers looking for their once in a lifetime main opportunity to make it big time.

I hope things turn out a whole lot better than what I think, but.... we will see.

Cheers
D

[frankthring]

A good question, David, and it would be a foolish man to make hard and fast predictions. The so called "Arab Spring" has mis-fired already and can
still easily implode (as far as the West is concerned).....then we have
always jittery Israel (and a very unstable country) more nervous than at
any time in its history with the loss of its "safe" frontier with Egypt and Iran
on the brink of having nuclear weapons......I was reading a piece the other
day by Alastair Horne, the great historian of the Franco-Algerian war (and
biographer of Macmillan) who was in MI6 after the 2nd WW. Talking with
"Super Mac" one time, the old politician said, "The problem with the Middle
East is that its the one part of the world where you can never be sure what
will happen next." Clearly the Western powers hope they can exert influence on
the rebels - grateful for help in ousting a despot - while they get their hands
on oil supplies and have a Middle East base for covert intelligence in the
region. But, with hindsight, it can all so very easily go arse-up 1 And probably will !

[David Johnson]

"But, with hindsight, it can all so very easily go arse-up 1 And probably will !"

Yes indeedy. I cam across a quote from William Hague yesterday

"We're not looking at British troops being a significant part of a stabilisation operation." Well, "significant" leaves lots of wriggle room, doesn't it?

I seem to recall a statement early on that there would be no British troops in Libya. Apparently UK Special Forces and ex-SAS soldiers have been involved for some time.

Cheers
D

[Arginald Valleywater]

Wonder what The Colonels close friend VP Blair says about the situation?? We love you Colonel and my boss George W says can we have your oil??

[David Johnson]

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon: It may be "desirable" that the UN send a "policing group" to Libya to ensure stability