Should we all start praying?

[jimslip]

Should we be worried the US has moved a strike fleet into the Yellow Sea, moved satellites over the area and no doubt targeted every missile battery, airfield and arms depot in North Korea with maybe some of these:



China must ally itself with North Korea, so all it needs is for Kim Jong-Il to lob a nuke at the South and off we all go!

[Bob Singleton]

While Kim Jong-il has a less than stable mentality, and while China is North Korea's natural ally, the modernisation and lurch towards industrialisation and capitalism China has made these last 10-15 years or so, means it's actually less likely we'll have a war between China and the USA no matter what happens in Korea.

When it was rare for Chinese leaders to visit abroad or for foreign leaders to visit China, the air of suspicion engendered by closed borders and lack of knowledge of each other made it easier for conflicts to arise. While hardly the best of friends, there is far less suspicion between "the West" and China now because of the vast amount of trade done between us, the fact that China is now a holiday destination, and the interlinking of all our economies.

Would Kim Jong-il lob a nuke without knowing China would back him 100%? Given the easing of relationships between China and the rest of the world, would China not intervene and "politely" slap him down in private, knowing the potential ramifications of such an action?

It may be scary to some, but I'm less concerned than when Reagan and Thatcher kept goading the Soviets... and my parents rightly remind me that probably the scariest time of all, when the world really WAS on the brink of a potential nuclear war, was at the time of the Cuban missile crisis. Compared to that, North Korea is like a two year old having a tantrum in Tescos.

[andy at handiwork]

'......North Korea is like a two year old having a tantrum in Tescos.'

It has to be remembered that N Korea uses bellicose action like the rest of the world use diplomacy. To paraphrase Clauswitz...'NK use provocative measures as an extension of diplomacy'. They have done it in the past and will continue to do it in the future as a means of attracting attention when it thinks the world isn't paying them due notice. Its negotiation by force, as they know perfectly well that the world is too worried by their irrational behaviour to take too retaliatory measures whatever the provocation. Ironically what NK wants is what its actions make it harder for the world to provide, ie respect, attention, food aid, technology, a peace treaty with the South, recognition of its territorial sovereignty, investment, a smooth dynastic transfer of power father to son and an end to isolation. Its possible that the shelling is part of a power play between the ruling factions. China wants stability in the region as any war would produce millions of refugees crossing the Yalu River, as well as seeing NK as a market for its exports. The problem for the rest of the world is that any accomodation will be seen as a reward for bad behaviour.

[Nob3y]

My dad was there during the war,he was in the blackwatch.
He always did say the north koreans were a cruel lot

[jimslip]

I disagree, Reagan was a closet liberal, he pandered to the Right Wing nutters in his party to keep them happy. It was he who phoned Gorbachev to talk arms reduction, apparently after seeing the film, "The Day After." The end of the Iron Curtain occurred during his presidency.

[jimslip]

The problem in these heightened states of tension, is the possibility of an accidental launch. All the MIRV's and incoming missile detection systems at this time are fired on a "Launch on warning" basis.

Like the famous near annihalation in 1983:

[jimslip]

Some more cheery stuff:

[Bob Singleton]

jimslip wrote:

> The problem in these heightened states of tension, is the
> possibility of an accidental launch. All the MIRV's and
> incoming missile detection systems at this time are fired on a
> "Launch on warning" basis.
>
> Like the famous near annihalation in 1983:
>
>
>
>
>


I lectured in International Relations at Grenoble University in the mid 80s when I was doing my Masters there... SALT was one of the core subjects (along with the Lebanon), and as far as I'm aware that whilst Launch on Warning was mooted as being part of the way defence systems were organised back then, I doubt that it is still the case today.

In these less hysterical times, LoW would indeed see Mutually Assured Destruction... a strategic defence philosophy that has long since been consigned to the rubbish bin.

[Arginald Valleywater]

I reckon that Kum Dong Eel or whatever the barmpot in charge of NK is actually dead and there is an almighty power struggle going on. Problem is if a liberal or more outward looking leader was mooted the party hardliners who live in luxury and have a decent stock in their larders would block him and declare he was a puppet of the USA.